Fourth Year Hon. Mention: Estimating Ontario's Growth Potential Economics
ECON 4089, Research Seminar in Economics. CD: Tsvetanka Karagyozo.
Abstract
This paper by a 4th year economics major will be of considerable interest to a wide audience. Its author has a particular talent for juxtaposing statistical formulas with an accessible prose discussion, explaining the functions of the different expressions in such a way as to enable a layperson to grasp the overall argument being made. The writer’s ability to ground their findings in clear, persuasive fashion also underlines their credibility as a skilled practitioner in their field. To this end, an informative literature review, convincing models, estimations, trends and results round out a thorough investigation of the growth potential of Canada’s largest province.
The report’s clear conclusions outline how in the short term, most of Ontario’s growth will be driven by labour force participation, particularly in the face of a covid-19 driven sharp drop (6%) in province-wide investment. But over the next decade, this investment ought to return, resulting in the slow rise of Ontario’s Potential Output growth from just over 1% in 2021, to over 2% in 2030. The competition assessors recognized the report’s clear writing, careful argument, helpful charts and graphs, excellent citation, and a convincing authorial voice which suggests many more similarly persuasive papers are in the writer’s future.
